Breaking It Down

So, I have been watching NHL statistics, like always, and something caught my eye. I looked at a lot of things this time and came to several conclusions...one is that stats don't really matter come playoff time and another is that if a team changes style and/or coaching, that team inherits the statistics from the previous administration. Of course, you probably figured out that is the Penguins circumstances right now.

I took the teams that are most likely able to make the playoffs or that are already a lock in the Eastern Conference and evaluated them. I am going to compare individual team statistics from the Penguins to the teams they could face sometime in the playoffs to see where we stand. I also have a graphic so you can see all the actual stats at the bottom of this article.

My first look was at the hits, which is usually my favorite statistic, and I was surprised at how we compare to other teams as well as past Penguin teams. There is only one team that tops our 2051 hits thus far this season and they are, surprisingly, the New York Rangers with 2131. The top four "powerhouses" are not even within 600 hits of the Penguins. I don't know if this is a good thing or a bad thing. It can be looked at either way. I mean, if we are the aggressor in the playoffs, it will knock the other team off of their game and frustrate them. They will feel they have to match us hit for hit to beat us, which they won't be able to. You can also look at it in the respect that they all have better records than us at this point in time. I think that is weak, though, because there are so many aspects to a game you can scrutinize. If you compare this year's hit count to the Penguins of the last two year's, we are way more aggressive than in the past. For instance, 2006-07 we had a total of 1472, and last year we had 1671. They were both from all 82 games. Take that however you want.

The next stat I looked at is really, in my opinion, an art form. You have to master blocked shots so you can get the timing down and avoid injury. You also stand to help out your goalie a ton if the shots your opponent is taking isn't getting through. A bad point about having a high number of blocked shots is that it means the opponent had control of the puck alot and was open enough to take a crack at scoring. Once again, there is only one team in the top nine that has more than our 1211. Take into consideration something I said earlier, though, we changed coaches and styles, so we are a different team now. The Montreal Canadians are the only team with more blocks than us at 1259. The top three hover around 1000 and Philadelphia is not far behind us with 1186. We are pretty much on the same tract as the 2006-07 and the 2007-08 totals of 1215 and 1268 respectively.

The next two categories go hand in hand, but in my opinion, doesn't factor in as much as it should in respect to overall records. These two categories are giveaways, takeaways and their combined differences as well as goal differential. If common sense tells us that if you have more giveaways than takeaways that you would have more goals allowed than most teams. It also should tell us that if it is the other way around, it would show just the opposite. I will tell you neither is an absolute or even a remote science because of one variable involved in this. The goaltender. We are a +13 in goal differential, but a -137 in giveaway/takeaway differential (GTD). I think this is a better measuring stick to the quality of a goaltender than most other statistics. If we give it up that much and are still a +13 overall, I consider Fleury a success. Boston is a +72 in goal differential and a +8 in GTD. That says that Thomas is good, but not incredible at this point. He is doing what is necessary to win. New Jersey is a +44 in goal differential, but an amazing +204 in GTD. That shows to me that the goalie isn't great, but look who is between the pipes. Ok, so Brodeur wasn't there all season and Clemmenson is now in the minors, so what. The next thought I have is a poor offense, but their offense is on par with everyone else. Washington is a +21 and an incredible -256 in GTD. That shows someone incredible in between the pipes. I know Theodore isn't known for this at this point in time, but maybe we need to look at him a bit closer considering how much his team, specifically Ovechkin with his league leading 100 giveaways, leaves him out to dry so often. Our possible first round opponent, the Philadelphia Flyers are +27 to a GTD of -139. They are almost our equals here with Biron in net. You may be wondering at this point how we measured up against the last two Penguin playoff teams, well, we were a +31 in goal differential both years, but were a -190 in GTD in 2006-07 and a better -68 in 2007-08. So we fall in the middle this year. The only difference is that Fleury's numbers have changed. In 2006-07 he had a save percentage of .906 and a goals against average of 2.83. In 2007-08, a save percentage of .921 and a goals against average of 2.33 was achieved. Remember that this year he only played half of the games. He seems to play significantly better in the second halves. This year, he has a save percentage of .913 and a goal against average of 2.67. So, as we can see, as Fleury goes, so does this team. I think we need to appreciate him a lot more.

Like I said in the beginning of this piece, it really isn't the stats that tell the tale, it is the way a team is playing at the end of the season. Are they making more mistakes than not? Are they having fun? Are they excelling in their "system"? Are they winning? If the answers are yes to all of these, then you deserve to be in the playoffs.

Let's Go Pens!

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Loving It!

How about them Pens!

Now, I didn't love the two temporary comebacks from the Canadiens, but I did love the way we played. Malkin scored an incredible goal and Sykora scored a great goal, which is nothing out of the normal routine for them. The thing that wasn't routine was the in front of the goal deflection by Satan, the crash the net goal by Talbot, and (the best one of all) Gonchar scoring a slapper from the point. It was like the good old Penguins. The 94th consecutive sellout was screaming like maniacs, almost like a playoff game.

“When we play a real good game you’ll see extended periods in the offensive zone,” Bylsma said. “It’s up-and-down hockey. It’s not run-down hockey we’re looking to play. We’re looking to play offensive zone time and repeatedly get shift after shift after shift where we can (pin) them in and gain the momentum that way.”

The differences I noticed between Therrian's system and Bylsma's system are as follows:

1. On offense, the defense is chipping in and sometimes even going deep, even when it doesn't look like their is a play developing. I saw on several occasions the defense were in deeper than a winger.
   
2. On defense, the offense was backchecking and giving the defensemen room to move the puck and dig it out of the corners easier. This clogs up the opposing offense and doesn't give them a clear possession. “From behind the bench I saw good things going on the offense, speed, going north-south quickly. I think what I was most pleased with was how I saw our forwards come back in a lot of situations. I think we lifted up sticks, about 10 or 12 times with our forwards coming back and tracking down their forwards.”-Bylsma


3. On the power play, I really couldn't pinpoint significant differences, all except for execution.


4. On the penalty kill, I saw the defenders attacking the opposition, making nothing clean for the other team. With the exception of the 5 on 3, it worked perfectly and actually created some offense for us.

They seem to be subtle changes according to the players and the coaches, but it looked nothing like the team under Therrian. Not even last year's team had this grit and tenacity. We took it to them hard and fast. The exciting thing is that this was under two days preparation. They will get another practice in tomorrow before the back to back games aginst the Flyers then the Capitals. I think these two games will be a huge statement to the seriousness of our resolve. If we truly want to get into the playoffs and make some noise, we need to win one, if not both these games. They are huge rivalry games and they are both on the rise.

“I told the players before the game, how you play is going to send a message to the fans and to the Canadiens in tonight’s game,” Bylsma said. “Our guys were focused. Our guys were ready to go. I think they had a clear understanding of what was at stake and how we wanted to play. While I said it wasn’t perfect, I think we sent the message nice and clear. This is a team where we think we can go and play aggressive and we were aggressive offensively more like we wanted to be, and it was a great message.”

I hope the other teams at the bottom of the standings that are within striking distance hear us loud and clear. I am really looking forward to the two games this weekend now.

"We were playing aggressive and took advantage of some good chances. It was a pretty high tempo, and that's the way we want to play," said Sidney Crosby, whose quick pass across the slot set up Malkin's 26th goal. "We were reacting out there pretty well, but at the same time we still have a few kinks to work out."

I completely agree...I can also see us getting a whole lot better too.

"It was not really deflating -- yes, they were coming back but ... I don't think guys were worried, guys were still confident and nobody really had their head down going, 'Here we go again,"' Talbot said. "Guys were ready to go again, we played with passion and desperation and got a big two points."

"Yes, they came back but everybody on the bench said, ‘OK, we can still do this,'" Talbot said. "They came back and the game was tied, but we kind of knew we were going to win that game. The way we played all night, and guys were not worried like the way we have been in the last couple of months. If that game would have happened a couple of months ago, guys would have been like, ‘Oh, here we go again.’ But tonight the guys were upbeat and we knew we could win.”

I think this was the key quote for me in this game. It is completely unlike something our team would have said a couple months ago. As soon as I read it, I just smiled.

"It's definitely a more fun way for us to play," Orpik said. "It's going to take time to get used to and we were a little sloppy at times, but I thought the work ethic was the best we've had in a while."

“Matt Cooke got me the puck,” Bylsma said. “I told him he’s 10 favors for the coach away from getting in front of the net on the power play.”

“When you play a 60-minute game, the plan is to invest and to wear down and force them to play a pace that makes it hard to keep up for 60 minutes,” Bylsma said. “That’s why it’s a 60-minute game. So we kept playing the pace and we said after the second period, this is a team that played last night, we have to keep playing at that pace and keep attacking aggressively. We have to track back, don’t give them chances to get in the offensive zone. Our thought going out, if we can continue to play at the pace that we established for most of the first two periods, that we would have a good opportunity to get some chances to win the game.”

One thing I am really looking forward to is March 4th. There is a billion rumors running rampant in the league involving the Pens and everyone that is a winger. Keep your eyes and ears open. I watch pretty closely, so keep an eye on my twitter. That sounds serious..Ha Ha.

I believe that moving Therrian and his system out was the best thing for this team, even though he seems to have convinced the entire hockey world that he was the best thing since sliced bread. Good for him, he might get another head coaching job sooner this way.

I think this weekend is key. How we play this weekend will show the league we are back and ready to start defending our Eastern Conference Championship trophy. It may be late, but not too late. Remember, we are four points out of a playoff spot, but six points out of fifth place in the East. I like our position and our spot. It is the perfect time to get hot and roll into the playoffs.

Let's Go Pens!

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Finally!

Now I am all about giving people second chances, but I believe that it was apparent that it was the team that got up for San Jose the other night, and not the coach. I don't think the coach had anything to do with the team winning that game, or he would had instituted that inspiration against the Maple Leafs last night. That was an embarrassing loss, especially because of where we came from and where we want to be. I wanted Michel Therrian ousted weeks ago. I felt that he wasn't able to get the team to play better, no matter how hard he tried. He couldn't inspire them to want to win, even when they looked down and out. He also seemed to have rifts with several players. I understand that everyone is not always going to get along, but we all saw the things that he was trying and most of us didn't agree. I was willing to give him a second chance a few weeks later when we started a new style and it worked. The Pens have enough talent to win these games. It takes a good coach to make the team. We won so much last year, I believe, solely based on talent alone. Reality set in when you could see that the Pens really didn't want to play for him anymore. They needed a change. I think Therrian was a great minor league coach and knew how to work with that level of talent. He had troubles with his other team that he headed up as well, ironically around this same timeline. It seems he can get the team to a certain level and then can't get them any further. I am quite pleased with this decision and actually think it should have been done a couple months ago.

Enough about Therrian. About the playoffs: “That’s our goal,” Shero said. “It’s been uphill battle. This is a resilient group. I’m looking for Dan to come in with the coaches here to rally the troops. We’re looking to make some progress here and make a push. “

The Pens made their AHL affiliate Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Baby Penguins head coach Dan Bylsma the interrim head coach. Balysma retired from the NHL after the 2004-05 season, right before the lockout. He is merely 38 years old and on the fast track for a head coaching position. Balysma may be the ticket to encourage the players the right way instead of the way Therrian did. He played parts of 429 games for Los Angelos Kings and the Anaheim Mighty Ducks. He was more of a defensive offenseman. He coached for the Ducks affiliate in Cincinnati as well as assistant coach for the Baby Pens during their Calder Cup Finals. He started coaching as an assistant for the New York Islanders. Some say that he is excellent in developing talent. He has been working well with the Baby Pens talent. They have a combined record of 98-49-5-8 since coming aboard last year. I don't know how permanent this coaching change is, but I can see them holding on to him for the rest of the season, obviously, and depending on how the Pens play the rest of the season. The Pens surprisingly reassigned Andre Sarvard to somewhere withing the organization. They also kept assistant Mike Yeo and goaltending coach Gilles Meloche where they are. Tom Fitzgerald, the Penguins’ director of player development, will join the staff as an assistant coach. I like this change all except for keeping Yeo. We have the league's worst power play and that is Yeo's bread and butter.

The new staff will have today and the morning skate, if they have one, tomorrow to prepare for the New York Islanders. Every game from here on is a must win. I was encouraged when I read what Balysma had to say: “I’m a passionate person and energetic person,” Bylsma said. “I believe you need commitment, passion and a high energy level. That’s how I approach life. We have a great challenge that we should enjoy. We should bring all that energy to the rink (Monday) .” “To have an opportunity to coach a team with this much talent and this much possibility is a great chance for me,” Bylsma said. “I look at the players and the roster and I look at a group that can win games right now. We need to do that starting (Monday) on the Island. Players have to believe that we can do this. That’s the approach that we’ll take.” I am impressed with him already, so hopefully their will be a ripple effect on the rest of the team. “Teams should be forced to deal with our speed and skill and we need to be an aggressive group,” Bylsma said. “We’re going to try to get the guys on their toes and going, bringing passion and work ethic to game. If we focus on playing back to our strength and get away from the situation it’s been for a while here, you’ll see a team that can compete and be a contending team.” Like I said earlier, though, I am confused about them moving Sarvard out and leaving Yeo in. Is it really execution of the plays he draws up or are the plays and thought process that bad this year just because Gonchar has been gone. Who knows. I guess we will find out. I am sure Crosby and Malkin would love to have steady linemates. Orpik, who had a recognized problem with Therrian, should be quite happy. I hope this change is right inline with a quality trade.

I have heard so many rumors, who knows what to expect. As I recall last year, we didn't hear anything about us getting Hossa, so who knows what Shero has up his sleeve this year. I know he is shopping Whitney and Staal. I know alot of you are saying how you want to be rid of Whitney and Staal and their contract. I agree only with Whitney, and only because we have NHL ready offensive defenseman on the Baby Pens squad. I think he absence from the team for the first couple months hurt him. When he came back, there was so much pressure to perform since Gonchar wasn't there, he hasn't been able to play as well. I think his performance in the playoffs last year is a big selling point. Ok, now, onto Staal. I would love to see what a good coach can do with him. He is in need of a little development, we all know that. He is still young enough in age and his career to make subtle changes the way he plays to make him better. I am going to sit here and hope for the best.

I would love to see something happen in this game to give us all hope.

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Pens Win

Well, alot of things happened last night that surrounded the Penguins. Pittsburgh had several more players not play due to injury totalling eight. Here is our injury list:

Sidney Crosby (lower body), Max Talbot (upper body), Rob Scuderi (head), Kris Letang (lower body), Pascal Dupuis (knee), Ruslan Fedotenko (broken right hand), Sergei Gonchar (left shoulder), and Mike Zigomanis (undisclosed). The Pens also lost Brooks Orpik (upper body injury) during the game, although Orpik says it wasn't an injury that should take significant game time.

Pittsburgh called up Janne Pesonen and Bill Thomas for this game to go along with the other Wilkes-Barre Scranton Penguins players in Chris Minard and Paul Bissonnette. Considering the way Pittsburgh has been playing as of late, the Pens were not expected to win.

With the help of Matt Cooke and Hal Gill, the Pens prevailed 3-1. I kept seeing interviews with Cooke before and after the game and he kept mentioning getting back to the way they played at Philadelphia. This made me think that Washington the other night got the Pens off their game. I believe that the team is convinced that they have to play the trap right now and be patient to win games in the current situation. Pittsburgh has won both games that they were able to completely install this system. I will say it is getting hard for them to get used to, but it works, so they are going to have to force themselves to use it.

Marc-Andre Fleury looked great in net and made several key saves. The only goal he let in was a Power Play goal in the second where he was beat by Ryan Getzlaf top shelf. Fleury didn't have a chance. The Penalty Kill sorta let him down in that situation.

The Pens went 0 for 3 on the PP while the Ducks went 1 for 4. Pittsburgh played well on the PK after that first goal. The Pens had several short handed attempts to include our own Fox Chapel native Bill Thomas. Speaking of Pittsburgh area natives, Anaheim had one of their own in George Parros who hails from Washington.

Overall, it was a great team win, sadly it took everyone in the locker room to get injured, but it could prove to do a little of the same thing we had last year. Make the players play harder just because they now know they have to.

You can look at this game in two ways...We finally won or we have won two out of three!

Let's Go Pens!

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What is going on with the Penguins?

So, I have been watching the last couple months and have been at the point of every emotion my body is capable of. At first I was upset, then excited, then sad, now I am a mix between optimistic and disappointed. I know they usually take it up a notch in January and on into March, but we all know that injuries and timing of those injuries play a huge factor into the whole scheme of things.
So, here are my thoughts. We, yes I feel as though I am a member of this team as a loyal fan, usually start out slow and slowly build up. By usually I mean the last two playoff years. Well, we did things a little backwards this year and started off hot without or main defense. I think we played out of our minds for that matter. No, with even more injuries to our players that are significant role players and not superstars like Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby, it is catching up to us. The losses of Tyler Kennedy, Mike Zigomanis, Hal Gill, and Maxime Talbot have been huge. I know, I know, you look at them and you think how can those players bring us down? They prove how important role players are in this league. I will start with Kennedy. He may be listed as 5' 11" and 183 lbs, but he plays like James Harrison of the Steelers. He throws what body he has around on every shift. He gives his body and soul to his team and what for? He has the Crosby passion we would like to see in all players. He creates a spark when he steps on the ice for that ever important third line. He helps Jordan Staal and Matt Cooke create things that otherwise shouldn't be there. Next I will move onto Zigomanis. You might ask what does a fourth liner bring to the table? Mike Zigomanis was only leading the league in faceoff percentage. If you think faceoffs don't matter, follow or record versus our faceoff percentage. It is amazing how much they coincide. I would even venture to say that goes back to the Stanley Cup Finals last year. I feel if we could have won those key faceoffs like we were with Zigomanis, we would have won the cup. Next on the list is big Hal Gill. He is a little more obvious, but I am going to key in on his Penalty Killing ability. Our PK has dropped off significantly since he went down with the injury. He covers up so much of the ice and mastered the defensive positioning. He may be slow, but for the most part he can be. By this I mean his positioning and decision making make this possible. I feel like Gill is one of the most underrated defensemen that we have. Finally I want to talk about Maxime Talbot. He has become the toast of the Penguins aside from Sid and Geno. He has that speed and ability to be so versitile and clutch. I feel that every team needs a player like him on their team. He just loves playing and gives his all everytime he steps on the ice. This attitude reflects over every member of this team. I think if we would have traded him instead of Colby Armstrong in that Marian Hossa deal last year, we would not have made it to the Finals. He is that important.
Overall, I am just saying the success of a team is the whole team, not just certain parts of it. Don't overlook anyone. Marc-Andre Fleury and Petr Sykora are difference makers as well. I think that we have the complete package this year when we are all healthy. All I have to say is thank God that our players that were going to get injured were in the first half of the season and not the last half.
I still stick by my prediction of the Stanley Cup Champions this year.

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1980 Olympics Again?

The Detroit Redwings are the Russians and the Pittsburgh Penguins are the United States hockey team from the 1980 Winter Olympics. The Wings are a very good and very old team and the Penguins are a very good and very young team. The commentators and analysts automatically believe that the Redwings will win the Stanley Cup once again and the Penguins may come in a distant second or third. Last time the Penguins faced the Wings, they were defeated quite handily in six games just like the game before the olympics where the United States lost 10-3. Little do the Wings know that it will all come to pass again. The Wings will look unbeatable, and most teams will think they are, until they face the Penguins again. The Wings will think that they have it made and have it in the bag, but the Penguins will not lose to this team twice. The Penguins will hoist the Stanley Cup this year as the United States clutched the gold medal. The cup will be back in Pittsburgh this year!

So, the personnel aren't exactly the same types, but the circumstances are. Now, I didn't pick the Wings to go to the finals again, but that was more or less because I don't want them to be successful. I believe certain teams have won enough Stanley Cups. It is our turn again and we are hungrier than anyone else.

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