Win, Playoffs, MVP

A big win tonight, despite some last minute heroics by Tampa Bay, finally clinched a playoff birth for the Pens. With a final score of 6-4, some of the players finally got a monkey or two off their backs. It was also a night to add to Evgeni Malkin's resume for MVP this season. There is only two more games left in the season, one home and one away, and we can still clinch 4th in the conference for home ice advantage in the first round.

I will start off with a quick wrap up of the game, and considering I don't like giving you what is already out there and easily accessible, I won't go too far. We were up 4-0 at one point and then in a blink of an eye, we were only up 4-3. It was kinda ridiculous. We didn't let that stop us from clinching our third playoff ticket in a row. We got important goals tonight. What I mean by this is that certain players need to get back on the horse and start scoring before the playoffs start. One of them was Petr Sykora, he scored his 299th it seems like a year ago, but tonight he finally flung in his 300th career goal. Two other goal scorers are players that have, as of late, been scoring goals consistently. They are Ruslan Fedotenko and Matt Cooke. Our power play got rolling by the hands of Sidney Crosby who, finally, scored two of them in the second with helpers from Geno and Chris Kunitz. The final score ended up being 6-4, but it wasn't as close as it seemed.

We are currently relaxing in sixth place in the East and will more than likely end up playing New Jersey in the first round. The is a chance, however, that we can move up to fourth place as long as we win the last two games, home against the Islanders and in Montreal, while Philadelphia and Carolina both loses the remainder of their games. Actually, Philadelphia only has to lose two of their last three for us to overtake them. I look forward to seeing what ends up happening.

One quick note I really wanted you to realize is that we have 12 players in double digits in goals, 6 of those with 20+, and 2 are sitting at 30+. That is unprecedented depth for our team. Last year we had 11 with 10+, 5 with 20+, and one with 30+. So, basically, what I am saying is that we can roll all four lines and have one or two players on each line that has scored 10+ this season. That gives us a big advantage.

Just looking at the scoring standings between Malkin, Crosby, and Alex Ovechkin, it is getting down to the wire. Malkin is sitting at 110, Ovechkin at 108, and Crosby at 101. Unless there is some craziness occurring in the last couple games, this is how it will probably end up, just add a couple for each player. Now, it sounds funny, but the bigger thing..MVP. The very definition of the award is, "player adjudged most valuable to his team". So, you look where the Penguins would be without Malkin, or where the Capitals would be without Ovechkin. I think the Capitals would be lower in the standings, but still in the playoffs. I do not think that the Penguins make the playoffs this year without Malkin. I see a few in the rear view mirror like Pavel Datsyuk or Zach Parise. I say sure, but like the Capitals, both the Red Wings and the Devils would have made the playoffs without their star. I think there is more of an argument for Datsyuk than Ovechkin, to be completely honest. He should be the close second to Malkin. Ovechkin will get the Rocket Richard award for most goals, but he doesn't deserve any more than that. The only thing he brings to his team other than goals is hits. Datsyuk and Malkin play a more pivotal role on their respective teams. They are both centers, which requires a whole extra set of responsibilities as well as their takeaway skills and blocked shots put them heads and shoulders above everyone else. Malkin should get it though, based on his scoring lead as well as the need for him on his respective team.

Dan Bylsma has brought this team out of the depths of the draft lottery and put up right in the middle of the heap for the playoffs. If they would have replaced Michel Therrien when I asked for it in December or early January, we may have clinched the division a week ago and a playoff spot two weeks ago. Every team should be very afraid to battle us in the playoffs, they will be afraid.

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Bad Weekend

Well, we are down to three games left and still haven't clinched a playoff spot. We had our opportunity and we blew it. We are supposed to be the team to beat. We are supposed to be this powerhouse that lesser teams can't keep up with. We must have forgotten our identity. We still haven't secured our dominance in any aspect of the game. We still have a lot to prove. We came into last night's game with a drive, but it wasn't nearly enough to beat the Hurricanes. We came into tonight's game with more of a drive and it, once again, just wasn't enough. We ran into two tough goaltenders back to back at the right part of the year...for them, that is. Is this how we are going to play once the playoffs hit? I am going to guarantee a big, fat no!

On Saturday night, I went out on a limb and actually wore my #66 Mario Lemieux sweater instead of my usual Pens sweatshirt. You can blame that loss on me. Tonight, I wore the sweatshirt and it didn't matter. It seemed like we came out to play in the first period, but forgot how to play once the second started. Grant it, I don't want to take full blame for the losses, considering I am just the livingroom fan, but I am a serious fan nonetheless and I am willing to take the heat. If anything, this gives me hope that Tuesday will roll around and we will be back on track to get on that all important roll going into the playoffs.

We have three games left, the first one is in Tampa Bay, then we come home Thursday against the New York Islanders, and the final game of the season is on the road in Montreal. We need all three after dropping two crucial games back to back. I know the first was in overtime, but it doesn't matter. We need the wins going into the playoffs. We need to have that seed in the opponents head that we aren't a team to be messed with. We aren't a team you look forward to playing. We aren't a team you can accomplish your team strategy against. We need to impose our offense at will. We need that secure feeling that the other team is going to hate matching up with us in the first round.

The Lightening plays us very hard typically. I mean, look at them, they are to the Penguins like the Arizona Cardinals are to the Steelers anymore. They are the Southern Penguins. Half their team is our old members, except for the leading superstars.

The Islanders are always a tough team to play against for some reason, another football reference, like the Browns are to the Steelers. It doesn't matter how bad of a record they have, they are able to take it up a notch against us.

The Canadians are a team, much like our own, trying to prove themselves. They have a harder problem though, they play in Canada. You know the hockey capital of the world? They always have a lot to prove to their fans, considering all the cups they have won...even though a majority of them were won when there were only 6 teams in the league.

Two things need to start happening on Tuesday to get us back to where we need to be: First, Malkin needs to start scoring, I mean seriously. I know he is leading the league, but he let Ovechkin catch up somewhat. Second, Sykora needs his 300th goal before the playoffs hit. Period. He needs to get back on track.

I think if we can roll through these next three games, we will roll into the first round. I would like to see us play an opponent that everyone else is afraid to play to get that edge in further series that we beat the tough team in the East first. I know some teams want to play the weaker teams, but I honestly would love to see a tough opponent first, it gives us steam going into the second round. Oh, and yes, I did pick the Pens to win the cup...as always!

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Breaking It Down

So, I have been watching NHL statistics, like always, and something caught my eye. I looked at a lot of things this time and came to several conclusions...one is that stats don't really matter come playoff time and another is that if a team changes style and/or coaching, that team inherits the statistics from the previous administration. Of course, you probably figured out that is the Penguins circumstances right now.

I took the teams that are most likely able to make the playoffs or that are already a lock in the Eastern Conference and evaluated them. I am going to compare individual team statistics from the Penguins to the teams they could face sometime in the playoffs to see where we stand. I also have a graphic so you can see all the actual stats at the bottom of this article.

My first look was at the hits, which is usually my favorite statistic, and I was surprised at how we compare to other teams as well as past Penguin teams. There is only one team that tops our 2051 hits thus far this season and they are, surprisingly, the New York Rangers with 2131. The top four "powerhouses" are not even within 600 hits of the Penguins. I don't know if this is a good thing or a bad thing. It can be looked at either way. I mean, if we are the aggressor in the playoffs, it will knock the other team off of their game and frustrate them. They will feel they have to match us hit for hit to beat us, which they won't be able to. You can also look at it in the respect that they all have better records than us at this point in time. I think that is weak, though, because there are so many aspects to a game you can scrutinize. If you compare this year's hit count to the Penguins of the last two year's, we are way more aggressive than in the past. For instance, 2006-07 we had a total of 1472, and last year we had 1671. They were both from all 82 games. Take that however you want.

The next stat I looked at is really, in my opinion, an art form. You have to master blocked shots so you can get the timing down and avoid injury. You also stand to help out your goalie a ton if the shots your opponent is taking isn't getting through. A bad point about having a high number of blocked shots is that it means the opponent had control of the puck alot and was open enough to take a crack at scoring. Once again, there is only one team in the top nine that has more than our 1211. Take into consideration something I said earlier, though, we changed coaches and styles, so we are a different team now. The Montreal Canadians are the only team with more blocks than us at 1259. The top three hover around 1000 and Philadelphia is not far behind us with 1186. We are pretty much on the same tract as the 2006-07 and the 2007-08 totals of 1215 and 1268 respectively.

The next two categories go hand in hand, but in my opinion, doesn't factor in as much as it should in respect to overall records. These two categories are giveaways, takeaways and their combined differences as well as goal differential. If common sense tells us that if you have more giveaways than takeaways that you would have more goals allowed than most teams. It also should tell us that if it is the other way around, it would show just the opposite. I will tell you neither is an absolute or even a remote science because of one variable involved in this. The goaltender. We are a +13 in goal differential, but a -137 in giveaway/takeaway differential (GTD). I think this is a better measuring stick to the quality of a goaltender than most other statistics. If we give it up that much and are still a +13 overall, I consider Fleury a success. Boston is a +72 in goal differential and a +8 in GTD. That says that Thomas is good, but not incredible at this point. He is doing what is necessary to win. New Jersey is a +44 in goal differential, but an amazing +204 in GTD. That shows to me that the goalie isn't great, but look who is between the pipes. Ok, so Brodeur wasn't there all season and Clemmenson is now in the minors, so what. The next thought I have is a poor offense, but their offense is on par with everyone else. Washington is a +21 and an incredible -256 in GTD. That shows someone incredible in between the pipes. I know Theodore isn't known for this at this point in time, but maybe we need to look at him a bit closer considering how much his team, specifically Ovechkin with his league leading 100 giveaways, leaves him out to dry so often. Our possible first round opponent, the Philadelphia Flyers are +27 to a GTD of -139. They are almost our equals here with Biron in net. You may be wondering at this point how we measured up against the last two Penguin playoff teams, well, we were a +31 in goal differential both years, but were a -190 in GTD in 2006-07 and a better -68 in 2007-08. So we fall in the middle this year. The only difference is that Fleury's numbers have changed. In 2006-07 he had a save percentage of .906 and a goals against average of 2.83. In 2007-08, a save percentage of .921 and a goals against average of 2.33 was achieved. Remember that this year he only played half of the games. He seems to play significantly better in the second halves. This year, he has a save percentage of .913 and a goal against average of 2.67. So, as we can see, as Fleury goes, so does this team. I think we need to appreciate him a lot more.

Like I said in the beginning of this piece, it really isn't the stats that tell the tale, it is the way a team is playing at the end of the season. Are they making more mistakes than not? Are they having fun? Are they excelling in their "system"? Are they winning? If the answers are yes to all of these, then you deserve to be in the playoffs.

Let's Go Pens!

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My Crystal Ball Could Be Right!

My Stanley Cup Final preview.

You may ask what I am talking about. I will tell you. Way back before the NHL season started, I made some crazy predictions on the playoff atmosphere and all the teams involved. I will tell you that I predicted a Calgary-Pittsburgh finals. It sounds cray, but not so much anymore. I was, at the time, picking them despite Detroit. Honestly, that was the only reason. Now, looking at everything, I see it is actually possible. It makes me look like a genius if you never read this article I am writing right now. I mean I am admitting to hating Detroit so much that I am picking against them in the finals regardless of what I truly think.

If the playoffs started today in the East, we would play Washington. I would love to see this. I know alot of people are thinking that this isn't the easiest route, but what better way to start off the playoffs with a victory against one of the top teams in the East? It is a better way to prove who is better, Ovechkin and Semin or Malkin and Crosby. We all know what I think and we all should know, but to prove it on the ice in seven games would be incredible. I love this idea.

If the playoffs started today in the West, Calgary would be playing Columbus. The Jackets would be in their first playoff race ever, and as the saying goes, you have to lose one before you win one. It makes you hungrier. Right now the Flames lead the season series 2-1. That isn't saying much.

The way we are playing right now, clicking on all cylinders, we are going to be hard pressed to lose this post season. I know, I may be jumping the gun too quick here, but it is what I think. We lost in the finals last year. We have a very young team. We know how to get there again, better than most of the teams out there. Our strengths are our physicality, our scoring touch, and our goaltending. Our weaknesses are portions of our special teams and some team defense. I believe that Coach Bylsma is resolving these weaknesses so they aren't as glaring when the postseason hits. We want the teams to fear us coming into their city. Bottom line. We want them to be thinking twice about showboating and trash talking. We want them to know that no matter what they do, we can still win the game, no matter what the score is. We are almost to that level. We had a small hiccup in the last game against the Flyers, but logically speaking, we can't win them all, and they had a really hot goaltender in Biron playing that day.

I like our odds and I am going to stick to my prediction....

Let's Go Pens!

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Malkin vs. Ovechkin...Behind the Numbers

Numbers. I am going to once again get nerdy on you. I was reviewing some stats and came up with some interesting numbers concerning Evgeni Malkin's domination of Alex Ovechkin. I said I was going to put something together showing this, so here it is. I started digging into some statistics concerning both these "superstars" and was not as much surprised, but confirmed in my beliefs. I was reading an Eklund blog on HockeyBuzz.com and was shocked at all the blind fans there are in the NHL. The post involved naming the best player in the NHL. Eklund himself said he thought it was Ovechkin, so did a ton of fans. Apparently scoring goals makes you the best in alot of eyes, but I like seeing how complete a player is, defensively, offensively, and on special teams is the sign of the best.

Player	Team	Pos	GP	G	A	P	+/-	ESP	SHP	PPP	HmP	RdP	DvP	ODvP	P/G
Evgeni Malkin	PIT	C	71	30	67	97	18	63	2	32	44	53	24	73	1.37
Alex Ovechkin	WAS	L	67	49	40	89	10	50	1	38	49	40	27	62	1.33

Player	Hits	MsS	GvA	TkA	FOW	FOL	Tot	FO%	%Tm	Shots	S%	S/G
Evgeni Malkin	67	98	73	85	241	329	570	42.3%	13.8%	259	11.6%	3.6
Alex Ovechkin	219	178	96	55	4	12	16	25%	0.4%	443	11.1%	6.6

Player	Even Strength:	G	A	P	Power Play:	G	A	P	Shorthanded:	G	A	P	GW	OT
Evgeni Malkin		17	46	63		11	21	32		2	0	2	3	2
Alex Ovechkin		32	18	50		16	22	38		1	0	1	10	2

I know numbers can sometimes be overwhelming, but I will try my best to break it down some. Malkin does lead Ovechkin in the points race. He has also played in four more games, but that doesn't mean that Ovechkin is playing any better than Malkin because Ovechkin's point per game average is .04 lower than Malkin's.

Another thing that really stuck out to me is in the shots category. Malkin has 259 to Ovechkin's 443. That is a significant difference, but it gets worse, Ovechkin has 178 missed shots to 98 of Malkin. This tells me that Ovechkin has shot the puck 621 times in 67 games and Malkin has shot the puck 357 times in 71 games. This is significant because Ovechkin only has 19 more goals than Malkin. Could you imagine if Malkin shot as much as Ovechkin does? If Malkin took 443 shots this season, he would have 51 goals to Ovechkins 49, based on the average numbers. This would give him 118 points already. He would be blowing away the competition.

I don't know if this is a negative of a positive, but Ovechkin outhits Malkin 219 to 67.

Another category that caught my eye was in the giveaway/takeaway category. Malkin has a league leading 85 takeaways and Ovechkin has the league leading 96 giveaways. I find this very impressive. It shows who is smarter with the puck and isn't careless.

Another aspect of Malkin's game that he is still working on that Ovechkin doesn't even have to worry about is faceoffs. Malkin takes 13.8% of the teams faceoffs and Ovechkin takes 0.04% of his teams'. This tells me that while Malkin has another aspect to learn, Ovechkin only has to worry about shooting the puck.

One more minor detail is that Malkin scores more at even strength than Ovechkin does and Ovechkin scores more on the power play than Malkin. That tells me that Malkin can score even when he has a defender on him, unlike Ovechkin.

The rest of their statistics comes out about even, however I think that Malkin's statistics proves that he is definitely the better and more complete player.

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