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Showing posts with label Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Analysis. Show all posts

26 April 2009

The Next Level!

The last two Penguin games have been heart stoppers. It seemed that we forgot how to play our style of hockey. I was actually worried about the series simply because we let them take control. Then, out out nowhere, our hero emerged. Was he on the first line? Nope. Second line? Nope again. Third? Wrong again. It was our hometown favorite Max Talbot to the rescue. It is amazing what a simple fight can do for a team. And they want to take fighting out of hockey? This is the definition of why it needs to stay in!

In game five at home, we played great in the first period, out shooting the Flyers 15-5 and getting all kinds of chances. Unfortunately none went behind Biron. The spirits were down and the Flyers scored one more in the second and two in the third to clinch it. We were outplayed and outmaneuvered in the second two periods. We somehow forced ourselves out of that game. We let them win that battle. It was at home as well. It shouldn't have happened. The battle we can lose, but not the War!

Game six started almost the same way, although we looked much better. The Flyers got two quick goals in the first though and one early in the second and it looked like game five all over again. I was scared to come back to Pittsburgh for game seven. I know how I felt last year when other teams were not able to close it out and forced into it. I felt that they weren't Stanley Cup quality. That is just how my mind works. I feel if a team can't close it out soon after going up three games to one or none, they won't make it to the finals. I am glad the Pens didn't give me that thought.

At 4:21 in the second period, we were down 3-0. Every minute before that mark in the second, we looked like we were done. We looked like we were going to lose and deservedly so. Then Max Talbot got on the ice and started talking to Daniel Carcillo, an ex-Penguin for Wilkes-Barre. He used to play with Max down there. Now, as far as fighting goes, you don't typically fight when you are up 3-0, simply because you could possibly, win or lose, give the other team some momentum. When Max asked for the fight, Carcillo was hesitant even though he wanted to, but with some encouragement from the bench, he agreed. This was the best example of a player being a bonehead. Max may have been beaten in that fight, but what happened afterward with the team was nothing short of amazing.

In a matter of 14 seconds after the fight, Evgeni Malkin crashed the net and Ruslan Fedotenko push the puck in past Biron's right pad. He finally broke the ice after a game and a half of not scoring. It also looked as if it broke Biron's will to play on the level he had been previously. Before the period was up, we had Mark Eaton and Sidney Crosby scoring in a similar fashion, batting the puck out of mid-air into the net after a juicy rebound. If you do the math right, we tied it. If the Flyers truly deserved to win this one, they wouldn't have let that tying goal in.

Just past two minutes into the third period the clincher happened. Malkin skated into the zone and it looked like he pushed their defense back, without actually touching anyone. He then had a nice little dish to Sergei Gonchar who wound up and fired his signature slap shot into the top left corner of the net. Biron didn't have a prayer. They let the Penguins control the ice. That was all she wrote aside from the hard fought empty netter by Crosby in the end. We won the game and clinched the series, now we wait for our next opponent.

Now, back to fighting. I am a big proponent of fighting in hockey, but only a certain kind. This was it. It was the type that comes with passion and emotion. Now I have said that I didn't like the ones right after the faceoff, but in this case, it was right. I guess it is circumstantial. What I mean is that when you send your heavyweight guy out that is know to be a fighter and the other team does as well, it isn't an emotional fight. It is just their jobs and doesn't have the same effect. Now, if the great hockey minds can figure out how to control the difference, that would make it great!

Just to let you know, Boston won its series as the first seed, so if the Rangers knock off Washington today, no matter what, Boston would face them and we would get whomever wins between New Jersey and Carolina. If the Rangers eventually lose the series against the Caps, then we would play Boston. I don't care who we play, but think of this...the last two times we played Boston in the Conference Finals, we won and went on to win the Stanley Cup!

Let's Go Pens!

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23 April 2009

All Hail Fleury, Our King of the Nets!

In Fleury we trust. Or at least that is what we should be saying right about now. I want to take a look at how well our beloved goaltender has been doing the past couple of years. It is pretty impressive. I like to compare him in a round about way to another Pittsburgh favorite in Ben Roethlisberger. I am not going to dwell on this just think of how each plays. When the chips are down and they are the most important cogs on their respective teams, they always seem to come through. Back to Marc-Andre Fleury.

Marc-Andre Fleury is only 24 years old and has appeared in a Stanley Cup Final as well as achieved over 100 wins. He also is starting to get the Brodeur and Roy-esqe type of reputation, however everyone keeps holding their breathe for him to flop. I will tell you this much, I don't believe he will.

Fleury was drafted by Pittsburgh 1st overall in 2003. He was the first pick because our Penguins were just horrible the year before. We went 27-44-6-5 for 65 points. We were second to last in the league. This was just the second year of our four year hiatus from the playoffs. Ryan Whitney was our top pick at 5th overall the year before. This was a legendary draft class with Eric Staal taken second, Nikolai Zherdev third, Thomas Vanek fifth, Dion Phaneuf ninth, Andrei Kostitsyn tenth, Jeff Carter eleventh, Zach Parise seventeenth, Ryan Getzlaf nineteenth, and Mike Richards at twenty-fourth. You look at this draft and it is amazing how this much talent all went in the first round. The key is that Fleury was taken before all of them.

He was immediately shoved into a semi-starting role for the Pens, even though he wasn't ready for it. That is usually reserved for a team that is half decent. We weren't. We weren't even by a longshot. We sorta left him out to dry constantly. Here is his progression since then...

2003-2004 21GP 4W 14L 2T 1SO 70GA 675SA .896SA% 3.64GAA
2005-2006 50GP 13W 27L 6T 1SO 152GA 1,485SA .898SA% 3.25GAA
2006-2007 67GP 40W 16L 9T 5SO 184GA 1,954SA .906SA% 2.83GAA
2007-2008 35GP 19W 10L 2T 4SO 72GA 909SA .921SA% 2.33GAA*
2008-2009 62GP 35W 18L 7T 4SO 162GA 1,850SA .912SA% 2.67GAA
*-injury season

Those are the overall numbers, but I want to show you the last 20 games of each of the last three playoff seasons.

2006-2007 15GP out of 20 with a record of 11-2-2.
2007-2008 13GP out of 20 with a record of 10-2-1.*
2008-2009 18GP out of 20 with a record of 13-2-3.
*-injury season

It seems like he gets significantly better at the end of the season, just when the pressure is on and you have to. Now onto some playoff numbers, which are also continually getting better.

2006-2007 5GP 1W 4L 0T 0SO 18GA 150SA .880SA% 3.76GAA
2007-2008 20GP 14W 6L 0T 3SO 41GA 610SA .933SA% 1.97GAA
2008-2009 4GP 3W 1L 0T 0SO 9GA 142SA .937SA% 2.09GAA*
*-still ongoing

So you see, Fleury is more solid in between the pipes than everybody talks about. The best way he could make that statement is coming off of that five goal let down in game three, only to stop 45 shots in route to a 3-1 win.

Marc-Andre Fleury may not have a Stanley Cup under his belt yet, but as long as he is in the net, we definitely have a chance.

Let's Go Pens!

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16 April 2009

Exciting Days Ahead

Courtesy a reader of Pensblog
So I spent the last day reading a lot of articles and getting the overall feel of what happened Wednesday night. I had extreme confidence that we would win the first playoff game. I am a very superstitious guy and have this really great Lemieux sweater that I can't wear on game day due to the fact that they never win when I wear it...even during the end of this past season. It seemed that every time I wore it during the game, they lost. Well, Wednesday night, I dawned that sweater. I knew that we would come out victorious. Now I can't not wear it. It is officially labeled my playoff sweater.

Upon opening face off the Penguins set the stage with a couple big hits. This was obviously not what the Flyers were ready for. It was pretty much all downhill from there. It was almost exactly like I said it. I predicted that the utter hatred will knock them off of their game, and it did. The Flyers were more worried about getting even the whole game that they forgot the game was won by goals, not hits and cheap shots. This is obvious not only by the scoreboard, but by the fact that Daniel Carcillo was suspended for Friday's game for a bone-headed play. He pretty much punched Max Talbot in the face with a combination of his fist and the butt end of the stick upon the final face off. Carcillo's only argument in the issue was that he was sure he hit him with his fist. Really. Who cares what you hit him with. Idiot. The point of the suspension was that you hit him. The other bonehead of the game was out favorite Flyer, Scott Hartnell. He chalked up three penalties for stupid actions and finished it off with his ten minute misconduct. If they plan on winning any games this playoff series, they need to get back to what they did in the final match-up of the season. To be honest, I don't think that would even matter. The Pens are playing on a whole new level, even higher than last year.

Onto game two. I can easily see the Flyers try to set the tone as we did Wednesday. They may at first, but they have too many goons and irresponsible players on their roster to win the type of series this is going to be. They have a ton of wins this season chalked up to brute force to a lesser opponent. We are not a lesser opponent, therefore the brute force tactic can't work. They would have to change who they are to win, and it is way too late for that. Their losing ways started with their .500 run in the last 25 games of the season. You can't win a playoff series without knowing how to win.

The Flyers are similar to the Baltimore Ravens are to the Steelers anymore. It doesn't matter what happens in the regular season because we have their number in the playoffs. The Steelers and the Penguins can take it to a whole other level when the stakes get higher.

The Pens over the last two years sorta reminds me of the Pens of the '90s. I am not just talking the early years when we won the cup, but the 11 year playoff streak. It seemed that no matter how we played, if we were within a goal or two, we could pull it out. It wasn't a guaranteed loss. I love that feeling. You know, the feeling that the score doesn't matter. You have to play 60 minutes against us and if you don't, you will lose. It is a feeling that only Pittsburgh fans know.

Let's Go Pens!
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14 April 2009

Here We Go Pens!

The playoffs are here! This is my favorite time of the year. I even love it more than football playoffs time. I love it more than baseball playoff time as well. I mean seriously, when I watch the NFL playoffs, the teams step it up a notch, and it is very exciting. I watch the MLB playoffs, the catches are more spectacular, but that's it. In the NHL, the teams step it up like six notches, and it is fantastic. The game gets ten times faster and even harder hitting. The saves by the goalies seem that much more dramatic. I love it. To top off the whole thing, it is almost every day for six weeks or so. You simply can't beat it.

The Penguins are once again playing the Flyers, our most hated rival. I remember last year when we beat them handily in five games, the commentators believed that there would be blood, but there really wasn't. I don't know if it was because Georges Laraque was too much of a gentleman or we just beat them too quickly, but there wasn't. We had hard hitting and that, but it wasn't what I expected. I am going to pull a paragraph out of the last blog I did about the playoffs concerning the Flyers specifically.

"The Philadelphia Flyers, our most heated rivalry other than the Washington Capitals. I don't know who we love to hate more sometimes. We have faced Philadelphia four time in the playoffs, losing the first three. Last year, we won our revenge. We lost in 1988-89 in the second round in seven games. We were destroyed in the last two games of that series with a combined score of 10-3. We wouldn't have to face them again until the 1996-97 season where we lost four games to one. In that series, we went down three games to none right away, only to win a 4-1 decision at home. We then lost the series in game five 6-3. We would then face the Flyers three years later in 1999-00, where we lost again four games to two. This was a key series that fueled the fire between us and them. We went up two games to none before coming back home only to lose in overtime. The very next game turned out to be historic, lasting five overtimes only to end badly for the Pens when Keith Primeau scored to win it. We never recovered from that and lost the series. We finally solved this playoff debacle last year with an easy four games to one. This was the most recent run at the Stanley Cup." 10-APR-2009

In that last post about the playoffs, I was pretty positive that there was no way that we were going to finish in fourth. As it turns out, the Flyers and the Hurricanes turtle shelled. I don't believe that the Flyers did it on purpose due to the fact that they lost home ice advantage as well as have to play us. The Canes had a good reason to drop the last couple games, they are playing the slumping New Jersey Devils. Now, I am not saying they did something as unsportsmanlike as that, but it sure looks that way.

I love how the commentators and major writers all feel it is necessary to start writing when the playoffs begin. It seems like they know absolutely nothing, just what others have been writing. I have been reading a lot and find in mildly humorous that people don't realize that the stats before coach Bylsma don't reflect on how the team is playing now. I just read on NHL.com that the Pens need to be more responsible in their own end because of their season average of 30.3 shots per game. I wish they could have watched the Pens all season and realized that it was the staff from before that allowed a majority of the high shot totals and Bylsma's regime has brought that number down. I believe that the commentators will realize that we are more than just Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. We are a complete team.

Now, onto the season series, we won it 4 games to two. I will honestly say we didn't look dominant at any time against this team. It is like they have the ability to bring us out of our game just because of our utter hatred for each other. The only good part is that it takes them out of their game as well. The team that can work past this will win out. I feel that Coach Bylsma will have that emotional button well within his control for his first playoff series. I also think that this is the best team we could possibly play for the first round with Bylsma. What I mean by this is that it will have everything in it, raw skill, courage, emotion, and speed. It will give him a taste of everything so he can be ready for the rounds ahead.

I was looking at all the statistics for the season between these two teams and although they look completely even, they aren't. I believe aside from the power play, which the Flyers win out easily, we dominate every other aspect of the game now. What I mean by now is that with the new confidence and coaching style, we almost fixed our season stats. They were horrible before and we improved so much that it makes us look even. This just tells me that the way we are capable of playing now is so significantly better that if we would have been able to play a majority of the season like this, we would have been in first in the east and dominated the stats sheets.

I want to compare my preseason predictions to the actual standings:

I guess I wasn't that far off!


I like our odds of going deep, but I am not going to talk about that. It is time to stop shaving and get intense!

Pens will win this series in six!
Let's Go Pens!

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07 April 2009

Win, Playoffs, MVP

A big win tonight, despite some last minute heroics by Tampa Bay, finally clinched a playoff birth for the Pens. With a final score of 6-4, some of the players finally got a monkey or two off their backs. It was also a night to add to Evgeni Malkin's resume for MVP this season. There is only two more games left in the season, one home and one away, and we can still clinch 4th in the conference for home ice advantage in the first round.


I will start off with a quick wrap up of the game, and considering I don't like giving you what is already out there and easily accessible, I won't go too far. We were up 4-0 at one point and then in a blink of an eye, we were only up 4-3. It was kinda ridiculous. We didn't let that stop us from clinching our third playoff ticket in a row. We got important goals tonight. What I mean by this is that certain players need to get back on the horse and start scoring before the playoffs start. One of them was Petr Sykora, he scored his 299th it seems like a year ago, but tonight he finally flung in his 300th career goal. Two other goal scorers are players that have, as of late, been scoring goals consistently. They are Ruslan Fedotenko and Matt Cooke. Our power play got rolling by the hands of Sidney Crosby who, finally, scored two of them in the second with helpers from Geno and Chris Kunitz. The final score ended up being 6-4, but it wasn't as close as it seemed.

We are currently relaxing in sixth place in the East and will more than likely end up playing New Jersey in the first round. The is a chance, however, that we can move up to fourth place as long as we win the last two games, home against the Islanders and in Montreal, while Philadelphia and Carolina both loses the remainder of their games. Actually, Philadelphia only has to lose two of their last three for us to overtake them. I look forward to seeing what ends up happening.
One quick note I really wanted you to realize is that we have 12 players in double digits in goals, 6 of those with 20+, and 2 are sitting at 30+. That is unprecedented depth for our team. Last year we had 11 with 10+, 5 with 20+, and one with 30+. So, basically, what I am saying is that we can roll all four lines and have one or two players on each line that has scored 10+ this season. That gives us a big advantage.

Just looking at the scoring standings between Malkin, Crosby, and Alex Ovechkin, it is getting down to the wire. Malkin is sitting at 110, Ovechkin at 108, and Crosby at 101. Unless there is some craziness occurring in the last couple games, this is how it will probably end up, just add a couple for each player. Now, it sounds funny, but the bigger thing..MVP. The very definition of the award is, "player adjudged most valuable to his team". So, you look where the Penguins would be without Malkin, or where the Capitals would be without Ovechkin. I think the Capitals would be lower in the standings, but still in the playoffs. I do not think that the Penguins make the playoffs this year without Malkin. I see a few in the rear view mirror like Pavel Datsyuk or Zach Parise. I say sure, but like the Capitals, both the Red Wings and the Devils would have made the playoffs without their star. I think there is more of an argument for Datsyuk than Ovechkin, to be completely honest. He should be the close second to Malkin. Ovechkin will get the Rocket Richard award for most goals, but he doesn't deserve any more than that. The only thing he brings to his team other than goals is hits. Datsyuk and Malkin play a more pivotal role on their respective teams. They are both centers, which requires a whole extra set of responsibilities as well as their takeaway skills and blocked shots put them heads and shoulders above everyone else. Malkin should get it though, based on his scoring lead as well as the need for him on his respective team.

Dan Bylsma has brought this team out of the depths of the draft lottery and put up right in the middle of the heap for the playoffs. If they would have replaced Michel Therrien when I asked for it in December or early January, we may have clinched the division a week ago and a playoff spot two weeks ago. Every team should be very afraid to battle us in the playoffs, they will be afraid.

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06 April 2009

Wins and Losses

Well, if we have to sacrifice a couple wins by the Penguins for the Pirates to win their season opener, I would rather have it back. Luckily, there was no damage done because Montreal lost to Ottawa tonight. This gives us the opportunity to clinch a playoff birth tomorrow night in Tampa Bay even easier on the eyes because we are still clinging to sixth place in the East. We will still be in sixth place with the win tomorrow night, but we will have that playoff birth on our season resume.

I look at the NHL standings and I know that the New York Islanders play at Carolina Hurricanes tomorrow night and the Florida Panthers are playing in Philadelphia against the Flyers. If the Canes and the Flyers lose, it will help us out, but not in the standings just yet. We will still be hanging around in sixth place. The New York Ranger are playing at home against the Montreal Canadians as well. If we can get the hat trick of wins by teams we want wins from, we will see Montreal lose that one. If the stars are properly aligned, we will not see a change in standings tomorrow night. This is unlikely, however.

The worst case scenario is that the Penguins get leap-frogged by Montreal by a point and the Panthers join the playoff race over the Rangers. This scenario would also negate any opportunity to get ahead of the Flyers for fourth place and home ice advantage for at least the first round. So, let's hope for the best in Tampa.

The good thing about today is the fact that the Pirates won their season opener. They did it in dramatic fashion as well. They were down 4-2 going into the top of the 9th inning when Andy LaRoche singled to right, driving in Freddy Sanchez, this put us one behind with two outs. Eric Hinske then doubled sending LaRoche to third. Out came tonight's hero, Jack Wilson. With two outs and two strikes, he killed a double, driving in three runs to pull ahead 6-4. What a way to start the season. Hopefully that winning feeling becomes contagious.

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05 April 2009

Bad Weekend

Well, we are down to three games left and still haven't clinched a playoff spot. We had our opportunity and we blew it. We are supposed to be the team to beat. We are supposed to be this powerhouse that lesser teams can't keep up with. We must have forgotten our identity. We still haven't secured our dominance in any aspect of the game. We still have a lot to prove. We came into last night's game with a drive, but it wasn't nearly enough to beat the Hurricanes. We came into tonight's game with more of a drive and it, once again, just wasn't enough. We ran into two tough goaltenders back to back at the right part of the year...for them, that is. Is this how we are going to play once the playoffs hit? I am going to guarantee a big, fat no!


On Saturday night, I went out on a limb and actually wore my #66 Mario Lemieux sweater instead of my usual Pens sweatshirt. You can blame that loss on me. Tonight, I wore the sweatshirt and it didn't matter. It seemed like we came out to play in the first period, but forgot how to play once the second started. Grant it, I don't want to take full blame for the losses, considering I am just the livingroom fan, but I am a serious fan nonetheless and I am willing to take the heat. If anything, this gives me hope that Tuesday will roll around and we will be back on track to get on that all important roll going into the playoffs.

We have three games left, the first one is in Tampa Bay, then we come home Thursday against the New York Islanders, and the final game of the season is on the road in Montreal. We need all three after dropping two crucial games back to back. I know the first was in overtime, but it doesn't matter. We need the wins going into the playoffs. We need to have that seed in the opponents head that we aren't a team to be messed with. We aren't a team you look forward to playing. We aren't a team you can accomplish your team strategy against. We need to impose our offense at will. We need that secure feeling that the other team is going to hate matching up with us in the first round.

The Lightening plays us very hard typically. I mean, look at them, they are to the Penguins like the Arizona Cardinals are to the Steelers anymore. They are the Southern Penguins. Half their team is our old members, except for the leading superstars.

The Islanders are always a tough team to play against for some reason, another football reference, like the Browns are to the Steelers. It doesn't matter how bad of a record they have, they are able to take it up a notch against us.

The Canadians are a team, much like our own, trying to prove themselves. They have a harder problem though, they play in Canada. You know the hockey capital of the world? They always have a lot to prove to their fans, considering all the cups they have won...even though a majority of them were won when there were only 6 teams in the league.

Two things need to start happening on Tuesday to get us back to where we need to be: First, Malkin needs to start scoring, I mean seriously. I know he is leading the league, but he let Ovechkin catch up somewhat. Second, Sykora needs his 300th goal before the playoffs hit. Period. He needs to get back on track.

I think if we can roll through these next three games, we will roll into the first round. I would like to see us play an opponent that everyone else is afraid to play to get that edge in further series that we beat the tough team in the East first. I know some teams want to play the weaker teams, but I honestly would love to see a tough opponent first, it gives us steam going into the second round. Oh, and yes, I did pick the Pens to win the cup...as always!

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02 April 2009

Lop-Sided Games Are Bad...MmmKay?

What am I talking about, you may be thinking....
Well, this season hasn't been good for the games immediately following a win of 4 or more goals.
We beat the New York Islanders 9-2 on December 11th, only to go 2-7-1 in our next 10.
We also beat the New York Rangers 6-2 on January 28th, only to go 4-4-2 in our next 10.
We won 6-1 tonight, our future is yet to be determined.
You think it is only a coincidence? Let's look at last year...
We beat the New Jersey Devils 5-0 on November 5th, 2007, only to go 4-5-1 in our next 10.
We beat the Atlanta Thrashers 5-0 on November 24th, 2007, only to go 6-4-0 in our next 10.
Ok, that was an anomaly.
We beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 6-2 on January 3rd, 2008, only to go 6-2-2 in our next 10.
Two anomalies?
Should I even include March's games from last year? The Pens are shutdown that month every year. We are a combined 32-8-5 the last three seasons in March. Last season, we won by 4 goals or more 3 times in a 5 game span. Enough said.
Let's see if we had that problem in 2006-07:
We beat the Philadelphia Flyers 8-2 on October 28th, 2006, only to go 4-4-2 in our next 10.
We beat the Philadelphia Flyers 8-4 on December 13th, 2006, only to go 4-4-2 in our next 10.
We beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 8-2 on January 20th, 2007, only to go 9-0-1 in our next 10.
Anomaly number 3.
Once again, I am not going to include March, although the 4 goal wins only occurred once this month, the aftermath was ridiculous.
So, after all the 4 or more goal wins the past three season, not including March, we have had 3 occasions where we have had winning records in the next 10. That is 3 out of 9 tries. Hopefully, since April rolls right after March and we are a combined 3-2 so far the past two April's we can pull off another surprise.

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